A new survey by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) indicates that Kenyans expect prices of several food items to increase in June 2024.
The Agriculture Sector Survey conducted in May reveals that items such as non-aromatic (unbroken) white rice, white bread, brown bread, aromatic white rice, wheat flour (both white and brown), and green maize are expected to rise in price by an average of 20 percent.
The survey highlights rice as the major food item whose prices will nearly shoot up by 40 percent. This increase is attributed to the adverse impact of excess rainfall on domestic production.
Similarly, bread prices are also expected to rise due to the impact of flooding on domestic wheat production.
In contrast, respondents anticipated a significant decline in prices of loose maize flour, loose maize grain, sifted maize flour, and fortified maize flour in June.
“This expectation was informed by the presumption that market supply will continue to improve, supported by favorable weather conditions experienced in the country,” the survey stated.
Additionally, prices of vegetables, milk, and sugar are also expected to decline, although farmers noted that onion prices would remain elevated in June.
However, some respondents opined that the high cost of onions would incentivize farmers to produce more onions, leading to a decline in prices.
Regarding sugar prices, respondents expected the drop to be minimal as the commodity had already declined from high levels and would likely stabilize.
Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) showed that a kilo of sugar dropped from Kes. 209.55 in January to Kes. 200 in February. This drop was facilitated by a boost in production following a five-month ban on the harvest of immature canes, which paved the way for full maturity of crops.
In general, 57 percent of respondents anticipated a decrease in the inflation rate in the next three months, compared to 43 percent who expected an increase.
According to KNBS, the inflation rate in May stands at 5.1 percent.
CBK conducted the survey to gather information on current and expected developments in the prices of food items to inform monetary policy decisions.
A total of 268 respondents, including farmers, retailers, and wholesalers, were interviewed in April and May to collect the information.
