Things are not looking too good for ODM leader Raila Odinga in one of his bedrock counties.
The latest poll by Radio Africa shows that Deputy President William Ruto has overtaken the former Prime Minister in Mombasa County.
41.9% of residents polled expressed support for Ruto, versus 37.5% who said they will vote for Raila. 10% are undecided, and 6.3% said they won’t vote.
Mombasa has been one of Raila's most reliable vote basket, supporting him overwhelmingly in 2007, 2013 and 2017.
In 2013, Raila garnered nearly 70% of the Mombasa vote. He also got over 60% in 2017.
For many months, the mainstream thinking has been that Ruto would need nearly all Mt. Kenya votes to win the presidency. The assumption being that Raila's traditional bases are intact.
However, going with these emerging numbers, that thinking will be called to question. Can the DP perhaps afford to lose some Mt. Kenya votes? It will be interesting to listen to political commentators in coming weeks.
Meanwhile in the same Mombasa poll, former Nairobi governor Mike Sonko has opened a massive lead against his chief opponent Mvita MP Abdullswamad Nassir.
Despite entering the race very late, Sonko now commands 45.6% support, as opposed to 31.5% for Nassir. Read that story here.