Ruto Ahead of Raila in New Opinion Poll

April 21, 2022

Raila Ruto PollDeputy president William Ruto would defeat ODM leader Raila Odinga if elections were held today. This is according to a new poll conducted Radio Africa.

Ruto was found to have 45.5% support, against Raila’s 41.3%. While none of those meets the 50%+1 threshold, the absence of a strong 3rd candidate, and the 6.7% undecided mean the election would likely won in round one.

Musalia Mudavadi, who has since joined Ruto’s camp, was found to command 3% support, while Murang’a governor Mwangi wa Iria got 1%. All the others got 2.5%.

This is a reversal of numbers from the last poll from the same company.

In the poll released last month, Raila led with 47.4% with Ruto having 43.4%. This poll was conducted by computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI).

The latest one however was conducted via SMS, between April 1 and April 13. 4,497 individuals from all 47 counties were interviewed, weighted to reflect the IEBC register.

“We are very confident that this polling system is highly accurate as well as being faster than traditional CATI or face-to-face polling,” said Joshua Oluoch, Head of Research at the Radio Africa Group.

Ruto’s highest support is in North Rift, where he commands 68.6%. In South Rift, his support stands at 58.9%.

In Central, the DP has 57.6%, while his support in Upper Eastern stands at 61.2%.

Raila’s biggest support is predictably in Nyanza, where he gets 66.5%. In Western he has 44.5% and 53.9% in North Eastern.

In Coast, the former Prime Minister has 46.1% against Ruto’s 38.8%.

Raila also does quite well in Central, where his support stands at 28.5%.

When asked who would be the best running mate for Raila, 31% said Peter Kenneth, with only 26% saying Kalonzo Musyoka. At number 3 was Martha Karua with 24%.

For Ruto, Mudavadi is seen as his best pick for a running mate by 24.2%, Rigathi Gachagua (20.2%), Ndindi Nyoro (11.3%) and Moses Kuria (6.5%).

In Central Kenya, Ndindi Nyoro is the preferred running mate for Ruto, with 18.5% support. Rigathi gets 17.9%, Martha Karua 11% and Moses Kuria 8.1%.

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