Diplomatic Affairs analyst Ahmed Hashi has expressed doubts about opposition leader Raila Odinga’s chances of winning the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson seat, predicting a likely defeat to Djibouti’s candidate, Mahmoud Youssouf.
In an interview on Citizen TV’s Daybreak, Hashi evaluated Raila’s prospects, even after receiving endorsement from the East African Community (EAC) States. He suggested that the French government could play a significant role in influencing the election outcome by swaying Francophone countries to unite against Kenya’s candidate.
Hashi predicted a landslide victory for Djibouti’s candidate in the elections scheduled for February 2025 in Addis Ababa. He emphasized the importance of considering the broader context of African politics and how various states are likely to respond to Raila’s candidacy.
“I believe Raila Odinga will lose the AUC chair election in Addis Ababa. I’m likely the only one who thinks that, but I would be shocked if he even manages to secure a slim majority. The candidate from Djibouti is going to win by a landslide,” he asserted.
Reflecting on the 2017 AUC elections, Hashi recalled how Kenya’s then-candidate, former Foreign Affairs CS Amina Mohamed, lost to Chad’s Moussa Faki after seven rounds of voting. Reports from that election highlighted a last-minute shift by Uganda, Djibouti, and Burundi, which ultimately cost Kenya the seat.
Hashi noted, “The leaders in these nations are heavily influenced by external powers. The AU is divided along these fundamental lines, with the French being one of the most significant influences.”
Having served as a spokesperson at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs during the 2017 elections, Hashi recalled the strong confidence in Kenya’s victory before the French government intervened, leading to the unexpected loss.
He observed that Djibouti, which initially supported Kenya, ultimately turned against them in the final rounds. Hashi expects a similar scenario in the upcoming elections, predicting that the French, along with Sahel regions and major Central African states, will unite against Raila’s candidacy.
Hashi also questioned Raila’s decision to pursue the AUC chairperson seat as he approaches his 80s, arguing that Africa needs a more vibrant and energetic leader to champion its agenda.
“I believe this is the wrong move for Raila. In a continent where 80 percent of the population is under 25, we must consider whether it serves Africa’s interests to have a leader nearing retirement age. Does he have the energy, vitality, and drive to address the pressing issues facing our youth?” he remarked.
