Kenyans are still trying to understand the rationale behind Peter Kenneth throwing his hat in the ring again as an independent candidate. It’s a foregone conclusion that he will lose badly, and it’s hard to understand what he expects to accomplish.

Kenyans being the political analysts that they are have already formulated theories. The first school of thought is that Peter Kenneth’s candidature is a blessing for Kidero. People believe that the incumbent’s tribal base of Luo and Luhya is intact, and the only votes Peter Kenneth has any chance of splitting are those that Sonko hopes to get. Prominently the Kikuyu.

The argument is that since “Kikuyus never vote for anyone but their own”, PK will provide a fatal blow to Sonko’s chances.

READ: PREDICTION: Sonko To Wipe The Floor With Peter Kenneth

The second school of thought is that Peter Kenneth will split Kidero’s middle class and elite vote. The argument here is that Kidero has performed so bad that even faithful Nasa supporters are not prepared to live in a city full of filth for another 5 years.

On the flip side, these same people do not have faith in Sonko’s style of leadership and are not willing to gamble and see what kind of governor he would make. If you don’t want Kidero and you don’t want Sonko, you are obviously left with PK… well, unless you decide to waste your vote on Miguna.

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I’m however of a different view. I think Peter Kenneth’s entry will have very little impact in the race.

First and foremost, Kikuyus are not big fans of Peter Kenneth. It goes back to 2013 when he failed to support Uhuru.

Secondly, most Kikuyus voted for Sonko in the nomination, when the blemish on PK was not that great. Now for the second time in his career, PK has gone against the tribal leader. I think even the few who voted for him last month will mobilize to teach him a lesson.

Thirdly, in just a few months, Peter Kenneth has moved from KNC to Jubilee when it suited him, and finally Independent. Even the small faction of Kenyans who thought this guy had some morals are beginning to ask questions.

READ: Old Video Shows Sonko Praising and Endorsing Peter Kenneth for Nairobi Governor

Finally, there is a big perception that most independent candidates are sore losers. Kabogo who is heading this delegation got the beating of his life. Uasin Gishu stood by their governor Mandago hoping to send Buzeki back to private business… the list goes on. If party loyalist spread this narrative properly, It is very likely that most of these independent candidates will get fewer votes in August than they got in the nominations.

From the above, I don’t believe Peter Kenneth will do any better than Miguna Miguna. I’ll be very surprised if either of them cracks 5% of the total votes.

That’s my opinion though. What’s yours.