Mudavadi Headed For Certain Defeat.. For The Third Election In A Row

December 3, 2012
Today is the final day of submitting written coalition agreements. Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto signed theirs at Jevanjee Gardens yesterday, before walking to Anniversary Towers where they handed over the documents. Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka are expected to sign theirs this morning, before forwarding it to the registrar of parties.
24 hours in Kenyan politics is a lot of time, considering that Kalonzo had just publicly refused to play second fiddle to Odinga, before doing exactly that, a few hours later. A lot can change within the course of the day, but after today, Kenyans will probably know who will NOT be their fourth president. A few weeks back, the presidential aspirants were so many that the proposed Presidential debate failed to take off. As the election approaches, many of these are shelving their ambition and teaming up with others. Already, it is certain that William Ruto will not be on the ballot as a presidential candidate. Kalonzo Musyoka will also probably take that route, if his agreement with Odinga is to be the latter’s running mate. Najib Balala is also out of the race, having attended the TNA-URP ‘wedding’ at Jevanjee, and approving Uhuru and Ruto’s candidature.
Charity Ngilu is now taking up the unenviable role of being the ‘water melon’. In the past few weeks, she has shifted from Raila to G7, to launching her own candidature, and now it has been rumoured she may be shifting back to Odinga. By the end of the day, her position will most likely be known, but whatever side she chooses, she is assured of no position. If she decides to go for the presidency, she will lose miserably, but in the process might split the Kamba vote. 
Perhaps the greatest winner after this election, aside from the actual winner, will be Martha Karua. If things stand as they were last night, she is headed to the ballot with no pre-election deal. Fact is she will lose miserably, but at the end of it maintain her dignity. If she goes the whole way, (which she most probably will), she will be on the right side of history 10 years from now… And 10 years from now, Kenyans may have taken a step towards non tribal politics, and Martha will be there to reap. 
Another candidate who might be on the right side of history is Peter Kenneth. The Gatanga legislator has always looked promising ever since the media tricked him into running for the presidency. His campaign is based on issues and the young generation like him for that. However, if PK agrees to be Musalia Mudavadi’s running mate, he should forget the presidency.. at least for the next 20 years. His association with ‘Messi’, the man believed to have been part of the syndicate robbing Kenyans billions in the Goldenberg Scandal, will dent his ambition irreparably. When Kenyans say they want to eliminate the old guard, they mean exactly that.. Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka and most importantly Musalia Mudavadi. Peter Kenneth was seen as the person to save the country. So, if he agrees to be Messi’s running mate, he will have proved that his values are not any different from the rest of the candidates. 10 years from now, when Kenyans are looking for an alternative candidate, PK will not be attractive. 
He would better go to the race alone, lose miserably, and come back in 2028 with pride. 
Now enter Mudavadi; he who nicknamed himself ‘Messi’. He is proving to be the most unlucky politician in Kenya. For the past 2 elections, he was on the losing side. This election looks no different. When MM bolted out of ODM, his future looked bright. His path to statehouse had been prepared. Uhuru and Ruto would give up their ambitions for him. He would face Raila Odinga in a runoff and beat him with eyes closed. Mutahi Ngunyi was so sure that Mudavadi was the next president, that he told Jeff Koinange to go ‘take it to the bank’ as collateral. The media’s favourite political analyst must by now have eaten all his finger nails, thinking of ideas on how to eat the proverbial humble pie. In his more recent analysis, Mutahi has just come short of conceding that Musalia will not be in statehouse in 2013.
And you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see that. The DPM controls pockets of Western votes, which he could probably lose if Raila and Uhuru establish themselves as the two horses. It will be very difficult for him to convince his people to vote for him to be number 3. He has also started exhibiting desperation as witnessed in the choice of ‘like minded’ leaders he has been talking to. Kalonzo was his best bet, but the two could not agree who would be president. It would have made no sense for Kalonzo to accept the running mate position, yet he is capable of consolidating the Kamba vote more than Mudavadi can consolidate the Luhyia vote. On the other hand, it would have looked stupid funny, had Musalia accepted to be Kalonzo’s running mate, having bolted out of a party where the same position was almost guaranteed.
There was no way Kalonzo and Mudavadi’s discussions were heading anywhere. So Mudavadi locks himself in meetings with Peter Kenneth, Raphael Tuju and reportedly ole Kiyiapi. Watching the names scroll on TV, and one could not help but LOL.
Of all the coalitions being formed, this is the one that can propel Kenya into a middle income country by 2030. Peter Kenneth and Raphael Tuju have done incredible work in their constituencies. This is the alliance Kenya needs, but lets call a spade a spade. 
Peter Kenneth has the vote of only a few Facebookers while Tuju was rejected by his own constituents. Ole Kiyiapi has not even had the chance to be rejected yet. 
Lets face it, Mudavadi has lost it, even before it starts. He should immediately fire Bonny Khalwale for pulling him out of the Orange party. 
But he may still have a role to play. When Raila and Uhuru require the western vote, probably in a runoff, they’ll go for him. Whatever side he chooses, he’ll not be president, he’ll not be VP.
© [Opinion]

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