Final Opinion Polls: Ipsos Predicts 52% Round One Victory for Uhuru, Infotrak Disagrees

August 2, 2017

Tuesday marking exactly one week to the election saw the release of the final batch of opinion polls. Infotrak was first followed by Ipsos and later The Star newspaper which has gotten into this polling game during this election cycle.

For the second time in a row, Infotrak has found Nasa candidate Raila Odinga ahead, coming in at 49% against Uhuru’s 48%. Both candidates have gained 2% from the last Infotrak poll released last week. In yesterday’s poll, Infotrak found 2% to be undecided, while the rest of the candidates would not attain 1%.

According to Infotrak, Raila is ahead in 5 former provinces, namely Nairobi, Nyanza, Western, Eastern and Coast. Uhuru is ahead in Central, Rift Valley and North Eastern. Though Infotrak did not release figures adjusted after removing the undecided, Angela Ambitho stated it would be a statistical dead heat which will go down to turn out. She ruled out the possibility of a run-off.

A few hours later, Ipsos released their own data, and as has been the trend in their polls, Uhuru is still leading.

From the poll, President Uhuru is ahead with 47%, followed by Raila with 44%. From their previous poll, Uhuru has remained steady while Raila has added 1%. According to Ipsos, 5% are undecided while 3% ‘refused to answer’.

Tom Wolf went further to break down the numbers when the undecided are removed completely from the equation. ”Nobody votes undecided, and on this basis Uhuru will get 52%,” he said.

This is the same number the incumbent had in their last poll with the undecided numbers overlooked.

Chart showing Ipsos numbers over time, with undecided removed

From the Ipsos numbers, Uhuru is way ahead in Central, Central Rift and Upper Eastern.

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Moments after the two main pollsters released their final data, The Star newspaper came out with theirs.

From the poll, Uhuru is ahead with 47% against Raila’s 46%. The same survey found that 7% are yet to make up their minds.

Raila does well among the youth age 25-29 (47%) while Uhuru is a favourite among people age 35-39 (51%).

This poll did give aggregated figures with undecided excluded.

In summary:

Raila 49%
Uhuru 48%
Undecided 2%

Uhuru 47%
Raila 44%
Undecided 5%
Excluding undecided: Uhuru 52%

The Star
Uhuru 47%
Raila 46%
Undecided 7%

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