Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen said on Monday, August 10, 2026, that the government has put 18 counties on high alert for the severe impacts of El Niño. He said state agencies are preparing for above-normal rainfall expected to begin in October.
Murkomen said the National Disaster Operations Centre carried out a comprehensive risk assessment, which indicated an 81% chance of a strong El Niño event. He added that meteorologists also project a 97% probability that secondary effects will continue into early 2027.
To guide where resources should go and to reduce risks that could overlap, the government mapped priority areas for responses to flash floods, landslides, prolonged drought, disease outbreaks, human displacement, and damage to critical infrastructure.
The risk mapping also reflects differences in vulnerability from one region to another. Along the coast, Murkomen said Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa, and Kwale face higher threats of riverine flooding, storm surges, and coastal erosion that could lead to evacuations.
In the Lake Victoria Basin, he said Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay, and Migori are exposed to destructive flooding, landslips, and waterborne disease outbreaks. He also identified Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu as high-risk urban centres due to concerns that drainage systems may be overwhelmed, infrastructure may come under strain, and services could be disrupted.
In the Rift Valley, the cabinet secretary said Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot, and Narok, along with North Eastern counties Garissa, Wajir, and Mandera, face severe threats to livelihoods through livestock losses, water scarcity, and acute food insecurity.
“The identified counties have been prioritized in the response planning based on their vulnerability to various risks,” Murkomen said.
He added that the National Emergency Multi-Agency Team and county emergency response teams have been activated and placed on high alert. The teams are currently being sensitized on their roles in disaster mitigation, rescue operations, and the distribution of relief resources ahead of the expected rains.
Murkomen said the government will continue monitoring weather updates and field conditions and will be ready to expand the list of priority counties if assessments indicate additional risks.
The preparations follow international weather warnings that El Niño is set to strengthen. The World Meteorological Organization previously warned that the phenomenon could become a strong event between August and October, bringing wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
