Below is a report prepared by American spy agency CIA, on the state of the economies of Kenya and Tanzania. Going by the trend, it is clear that Kenya’s position as East Africa’s largest economy, is threatened by our brothers in the south.
Economy
| Tanzania | Kenya | |
|---|---|---|
| Economy – overview | Tanzania is one of the world’s poorest economies in terms of per capita income, however, it has achieved high growth based on gold production and tourism. The economy depends on agriculture, which accounts for more than one-quarter of GDP, provides 85% of exports, and employs about 80% of the work force. The World Bank, the IMF, and bilateral donors have provided funds to rehabilitate Tanzania’s aging economic infrastructure, including rail and port infrastructure that are important trade links for inland countries. Recent banking reforms have helped increase private-sector growth and investment, and the government has increased spending on agriculture to 7% of its budget. Continued donor assistance and solid macroeconomic policies supported a positive growth rate, despite the world recession. In 2008, Tanzania received the world’s largest Millennium Challenge Compact grant, worth $698 million. Dar es Salaam used fiscal stimulus and loosened monetary policy to ease the impact of the global recession. GDP growth in 2009-12 was a respectable 6% per year due to high gold prices and increased production. | Kenya has been hampered by corruption and by reliance upon several primary goods whose prices have remained low. Low infrastructure investment threatens Kenya’s long-term position as the largest East African economy. In the key December 2002 elections, Daniel Arap MOI’s 24-year-old reign ended, and a new opposition government took on the formidable economic problems facing the nation. After some early progress in rooting out corruption and encouraging donor support, the KIBAKI government was rocked by high-level graft scandals in 2005 and 2006. In 2006, the World Bank and IMF delayed loans pending action by the government on corruption. The international financial institutions and donors have since resumed lending, despite little action on the government’s part to deal with corruption. Unemployment is very high. The country has experienced cronic budget deficits, inflationary pressures, and sharp currency depreciation – as a result of high food and fuel import prices. The discovery of oil in March 2012 provides an opportunity for Kenya to balance its growing trade deficit if the deposits are found to be commercially viable and Kenya is able to develop a port and pipeline to export its oil. |
| GDP (purchasing power parity) | $73.5 billion (2012 est.) $69.01 billion (2011 est.) $64.83 billion (2010 est.) note: data are in 2012 US dollars |
$76.07 billion (2012 est.) $72.37 billion (2011 est.) $69.33 billion (2010 est.) note: data are in 2012 US dollars |
| GDP – real growth rate | 6.5% (2012 est.) 6.4% (2011 est.) 7% (2010 est.) |
5.1% (2012 est.) 4.4% (2011 est.) 5.8% (2010 est.) |
| GDP – per capita (PPP) | $1,700 (2012 est.) $1,600 (2011 est.) $1,600 (2010 est.) note: data are in 2012 US dollars |
$1,800 (2012 est.) $1,800 (2011 est.) $1,700 (2010 est.) note: data are in 2012 US dollars |
| GDP – composition by sector | agriculture: 27.1% industry: 24.1% services: 48.7% (2012 est.) |
agriculture: 24.2% industry: 14.8% services: 61% (2012 est.) |
| Population below poverty line | 36% (2002 est.) | 50% (2000 est.) |
| Household income or consumption by percentage share | lowest 10%: 2.8% highest 10%: 29.6% (2007) |
lowest 10%: 1.8% highest 10%: 37.8% (2005) |
| Inflation rate (consumer prices) | 15.3% (2012 est.) 12.7% (2011 est.) |
10.1% (2012 est.) 14% (2011 est.) |
| Labor force | 24.77 million (2012 est.) | 18.89 million (2012 est.) |
| Labor force – by occupation | agriculture: 80% industry and services: 20% (2002 est.) |
agriculture: 75%
industry and services: 25% (2007 est.) |
| Unemployment rate | NA% | 40% (2008 est.) 40% (2001 est.) |
| Distribution of family income – Gini index | 37.6 (2007) 34.6 (2000) |
42.5 (2008 est.) 44.9 (1997) |
| Budget | revenues: $6.075 billion expenditures: $7.67 billion (2012 est.) |
revenues: $7.375 billion expenditures: $9.3 billion (2012 est.) |
| Industries | agricultural processing (sugar, beer, cigarettes, sisal twine); mining (diamonds, gold, and iron), salt, soda ash; cement, oil refining, shoes, apparel, wood products, fertilizer | small-scale consumer goods (plastic, furniture, batteries, textiles, clothing, soap, cigarettes, flour), agricultural products, horticulture, oil refining; aluminum, steel, lead; cement, commercial ship repair, tourism |
| Industrial production growth rate | 7% (2010 est.) | 3.1% (2011 est.) |
| Agriculture – products | coffee, sisal, tea, cotton, pyrethrum (insecticide made from chrysanthemums), cashew nuts, tobacco, cloves, corn, wheat, cassava (tapioca), bananas, fruits, vegetables; cattle, sheep, goats | tea, coffee, corn, wheat, sugarcane, fruit, vegetables; dairy products, beef, pork, poultry, eggs |
| Exports | $5.031 billion (2012 est.) $4.843 billion (2011 est.) |
$5.942 billion (2012 est.) $5.787 billion (2011 est.) |
| Exports – commodities | gold, coffee, cashew nuts, manufactures, cotton | tea, horticultural products, coffee, petroleum products, fish, cement |
| Exports – partners | China 14.3%, Japan 7.8%, India 7.8%, Germany 6.7%, UAE 4.5% (2011) | Uganda 9.9%, Tanzania 9.6%, Netherlands 8.4%, UK 8.1%, US 6.2%, Egypt 4.9%, Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.2% (2011) |
| Imports | $9.724 billion (2012 est.) $9.635 billion (2011 est.) |
$14.39 billion (2012 est.) $13.83 billion (2011 est.) |
| Imports – commodities | consumer goods, machinery and transportation equipment, industrial raw materials, crude oil | machinery and transportation equipment, petroleum products, motor vehicles, iron and steel, resins and plastics |
| Imports – partners | India 18.8%, China 17.4%, South Africa 6%, Kenya 5.9%, UAE 4.7% (2011) | China 15.3%, India 13.8%, UAE 10.5%, Saudi Arabia 7.3%, South Africa 5.5%, Japan 4% (2011) |
| Debt – external | $11.18 billion (31 December 2012 est.) $10.33 billion (31 December 2011 est.) |
$9.526 billion (31 December 2012 est.) $8.999 billion (31 December 2011 est.) |
| Exchange rates | Tanzanian shillings (TZS) per US dollar – 1,586.9 (2012 est.) 1,572.1 (2011 est.) 1,409.3 (2010 est.) 1,320.3 (2009) 1,178.1 (2008) |
Kenyan shillings (KES) per US dollar – 85.82 (2012 est.) 88.811 (2011 est.) 79.233 (2010 est.) 77.352 (2009) 68.358 (2008) |
| Fiscal year | 1 July – 30 June | 1 July – 30 June |
| Investment (gross fixed) | 26.5% of GDP (2012 est.) | 21.9% of GDP (2012 est.) |
| Public debt | 34.4% of GDP (2012 est.) 37.6% of GDP (2011 est.) |
50% of GDP (2012 est.) 50.7% of GDP (2011 est.) |
| Reserves of foreign exchange and gold | $3.787 billion (31 December 2012 est.) $3.726 billion (31 December 2011 est.) note: excludes gold |
$5.396 billion (31 December 2012 est.) $4.893 billion (31 December 2011 est.) |
| Current Account Balance | -$3.946 billion (2012 est.) -$3.872 billion (2011 est.) |
-$3.948 billion (2012 est.) -$3.536 billion (2011 est.) |
| GDP (official exchange rate) | $27.98 billion (2012 est.) | $41.84 billion (2012 est.) |
| Stock of direct foreign investment – at home | $NA | $3.018 billion (31 December 2012 est.) $2.626 billion (31 December 2011 est.) |
| Stock of direct foreign investment – abroad | $NA | $320 million (31 December 2012 est.) $300 million (31 December 2011 est.) |
| Market value of publicly traded shares | $1.539 billion (31 December 2011) $1.264 billion (31 December 2010) $1.293 billion (31 December 2008) |
$10.2 billion (31 December 2011) $14.46 billion (31 December 2010) $10.76 billion (31 December 2009) |
| Central bank discount rate | 8.25% (31 December 2010 est.) 3.7% (31 December 2009 est.) |
7% (31 December 2010 est.) NA% (31 December 2009 est.) |
| Commercial bank prime lending rate | 21.3% (31 December 2012 est.) 14.96% (31 December 2011 est.) |
18% (31 December 2012 est.) 15.05% (31 December 2011 est.) |
| Stock of money | $2.464 billion (31 December 2008) $2.285 billion (31 December 2007) |
$6.068 billion (31 December 2008) $5.912 billion (31 December 2007) |
| Stock of quasi money | $3.362 billion (31 December 2008) $3.212 billion (31 December 2007) |
$5.468 billion (31 December 2008) $6.464 billion (31 December 2007) |
| Stock of domestic credit | $6.803 billion (31 December 2012 est.) $5.665 billion (31 December 2011 est.) |
$20.03 billion (31 December 2012 est.) $18.25 billion (31 December 2011 est.) |
| Stock of narrow money | $4.964 billion (31 December 2011 est.) $4.327 billion (31 December 2010 est.) |
$9.279 billion (31 December 2012 est.) $7.32 billion (31 December 2011 est.) |
| Stock of broad money | $8.285 billion (31 December 2011 est.) $7.568 billion (31 December 2010 est.) |
$21.23 billion (31 December 2012 est.) $17.89 billion (31 December 2011 est.) |
| Taxes and other revenues | 21.7% of GDP (2012 est.) | 17.6% of GDP (2012 est.) |
| Budget surplus (+) or deficit (-) | -5.7% of GDP (2012 est.) | -4.6% of GDP (2012 est.) |
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