Kenya may be heading for a historic moment in its democratic journey if predictions by former President William Ruto’s advisor, Moses Kuria, come true. Kuria has projected that the 2027 General Election will end in a presidential run-off – the first in the country’s history.
Speaking on Sunday, September 28, 2025, Kuria said Kenya’s multi-party democracy has matured over the last three decades, reaching a stage where no single candidate is likely to secure victory in the first round. He argued that political diversity has deepened to the point where a run-off is not only possible but almost inevitable.
“In 2027, a new chapter will be written in this book. For the first time, the winner of the Presidential Election will be decided in a run-off,” he said.
Kuria stressed that the next general election would be unlike any other, warning that the presidential race will be too close to call in the first round.
“There will be no outright winner in the first round,” he added.
What the Constitution Says About a Run-Off
Under Kenya’s 2010 Constitution, a presidential run-off occurs when no candidate meets the thresholds required to be declared the outright winner in the first round of voting.
Article 138(4) spells out these conditions clearly. To secure an outright win, a candidate must:
- Receive more than half of all valid votes cast nationwide—that is, at least 50 percent plus one vote. This rule ensures that the president has the support of the majority of Kenyans.
- Secure at least 25 percent of votes in more than half of Kenya’s 47 counties. This requirement fosters national unity and prevents victories based purely on regional or ethnic strongholds.
If no candidate achieves both conditions, the top two candidates face each other in a run-off election, where Kenyans return to the polls to decide the presidency.
Kuria described this looming possibility as proof that Kenya’s democracy is maturing and diversifying. He said the anticipated run-off would reflect a competitive and inclusive political space, one that could usher in a new era of leadership dynamics.
