With exactly one week to the election, voters are all but decided. Though the polls put the numbers of undecided at around 5%, it is likely that those respondents chose to withhold their choice.
In just one week, we will find out whether it will be another 5 years for Jubilee, or Raila will become our 5th president.
Contrary to what some people think, there will be no run off. For the country to go into a second round, there needs to be a strong 3rd candidate to eat away Raila and Uhuru’s numbers. As it stands, all the other candidates will be lucky to get 1% combined. Therefore, this election will be decided next Tuesday.
Both Uhuru and Raila have made tremendous gains in ‘enemy’ territories; counties they did not do too well in 2013. The county polls by the various pollsters present very different results, but the trend is clear. Not a single county has shifted from the 2013 voting pattern in its entirety. Of course with the exception of Mudavadi’s counties which now belong to Raila.
But going with recent events, these are 5 counties we can expect President Uhuru to perform better than 2013. (Tomorrow we look at counties Raila will perform better than in 2013)
2013: Raila – 70.5%, Uhuru – 23.8%
Uhuru has spent more time in Mombasa than probably any other county with exception of Nairobi. Despite his differences with Governor Joho, Uhuru has literally made Mombasa his second home.
The best part for Jubilee is that most of Uhuru’s visits to the county have been development-based and highly publicized because of his feud with Joho.
Apart from the programmes which benefit all counties, Mombasa has received a few new and better roads, a refurbished market etc. It will also be one of the primary beneficiaries of the SGR train service, both directly and indirectly.
On the other hand, Joho his dealing with poor sanitation issues. Many residents are particularly unhappy with the way he has handled the garbage problem in the coastal city.
Make no mistake. Joho will win by a huge margin. But in my view, Uhuru’s 2013 numbers have only gone up.
Mombasa 2017 prediction: Uhuru – 30-40%.
2013: Raila – 87%, Uhuru – 9.7%
This is another county that Jubilee has courted actively. Governor Alfred Mutua is doing quite well in opinion polls, but whether his votes translate to Uhuru’s votes is a whole ‘nother issue.
It is likely that Mutua may have swayed a few of his supporters from believing in Kalonzo. It is also likely that some people in Ukambani read betrayal in Raila dishonoring the 2013 agreement with Kalonzo. Johnstone Muthama’s public disagreements with Kalonzo have not helped matters, and there probably are a few who no longer think that Kalonzo is strong enough a leader.
But the main reason I believe Jubilee will do better this time round in Machakos, is the power of incumbency. You see, when you read a few comments on Twitter about the state of the country, you think its all doom. However, I bet there are quite a substantial number of people that Jubilee touched individually. Is it by providing a new borehole, paying for maternity, electricity, a new road.. etc.
These are the people that will boost Jubilee’s numbers in Machakos.
In 2013, Uhuruto performed so dismally in Machakos, that it will take a miracle to beat those numbers. Indeed, Raila with 87% in 2013 did not leave himself too much room to grow this time round.
Machakos prediction 2017: Uhuru – 20-30%
2013: Raila – 84.7%, Uhuru – 10.3%
Without a doubt, the entire coast region is a place Jubilee is determined to raid. In 2013, Raila ran away with the region, and this time round it will be no different. However, just like Machakos county, Raila performed so well here in 2013, that it will be very hard to maintain or improve on those numbers. Especially not with the direct offensive launched by Uhuruto.
Governor Kingi will take it easily. But between Gideon Mung’aro and Kazungu Kambi, both vying for the governor seat and supporting Uhuru, they will definitely influence a substantial number of voters. Some polls already have them at over 30% combined.
Once again, the power of incumbency will play a big role. It is easier to show people what has been done than tell them what has not been done. Which presents an almost impossible task for Raila to maintain or improve on the 2013 numbers.
Kilifi 2017 Prediction: Uhuru – 25-40%.
2013: Raila – 81.4%, Uhuru – 14.1%
By now you can see the trend. Coast is likely to be more favourable to Uhuru this time round than it was in 2017.
In Kwale, Jubilee can point to several national government developments, and there is a big likelihood a few residents who did not vote for Uhuru appreciate.
As if things could not get better for Jubilee in Kwale, Governor Salim Mvurya defected from ODM. His re-election is not cast in stone like Joho’s, but it would be very unwise to dismiss his influence. Whether his personal votes translate into Uhuru’s votes remain to be seen, but one thing any analyst will tell you is that it looks much better for Jubilee than in 2013.
Kwale 2017 Prediction: Uhuru – 30-40%
2013: Raila – 86.5%, Uhuru – 3.7%
Well, the reasons here should be self explanatory. For an incumbent to do worse than 3.7%, he must have failed totally. As much as Jubilee has many flaws, they also have many things to show.
While most of Nasa saw the Sigiri Bridge collapse as God-sent, what did Busia people think of it. The fact that Uhuru made a pledge (and almost fulfilled) to once and for all stop the deaths on that river; what did residents think about this deed. Only a fool would think it did not win him a few votes.
What about Ababu Namwamba? Has he brought anything to the Jubilee table?
Probably nothing substantial, but if I were a betting person, I would say that a sitting president will get more than 3.7% this time round.
Busia 2017 Prediction: Uhuru – 10-20%
Tomorrow will look at counties Raila will perform better than 2013.
The above analysis is an opinion based on observation of the ‘mood’, and not supported by any scientific numbers.