‘NASA’ is currently displaying a united front. However, we have seen this story before and more often than not, it does not end well.
As it stands, anyone who thinks Raila Odinga will not be Nasa presidential candidate is deceiving himself. The former Prime Minister is miles ahead of the other hopefuls, namely Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka and Moses Wetangula, who have been collectively branded the ‘3 flowergirls’.
Raila reportedly has a fully functioning campaign secretariat and it’s illogical to think he will give that up.
That said, the biggest headache for Raila will be how to convince Kalonzo Musyoka to remain in the coalition.
Kalonzo was Raila’s running mate in 2013, and despite his public utterances, it is highly unlikely he will agree to the same arrangement once again. To make matters worse, even the deputy presidency is not guaranteed for Kalonzo, with recent talk of an ‘all western ticket’ that will have Raila at the top with Mudavadi as his deputy.
Keen observers do not see a situation where Kalonzo leads a Nasa (or Cord) ticket.
This unfolding situation has given rise to talk that the Wiper leader will bolt.
The most obvious destination would be Jubilee, but that would be interpreted as a ‘betrayal’. Which means he will most likely launch his own presidential bid on a wiper ticket. This will be in a bid to deny Raila the Kamba vote, and grant Jubilee an easier run for a second term.
Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi says it’s a matter of when he will bolt, not if.
”Kalonzo will bolt out of NASA in my view. The issue is not if he will but when he will. And like Raila he will do so to recreate the 2007 magic. In that election, he ran as president, lost and got awarded the job of Vice President. His gamble paid off and if it worked then, why not repeat it this year?” he states in his latest video.
Mutahi summarizes Kalonzo’s game plan as:
1. Accuse NASA of rigging nominations and then bolt.
2. Run as president under Wiper, thus denying Raila the Kamba vote.
3. Like 2007, he is rewarded with a position in government by Jubilee (Prime Minister).
I don’t necessary disagree with Mutahi, but I’m not certain of the route Kalonzo will take. However, I’m pretty confident that he will somehow end up in or with Jubilee.
What do you think?